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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Growth Hooked Model |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | Multiple workshops over several weeks | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Hooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics check | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | GrowthBehaviorRetention | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery |