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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | laufend | 2-6 h | 10-30 min je Item | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 3-8 | 1-8 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | RiskRoot causeSafety | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk |