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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 5-20 min | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 3-20 | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationEffortRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |