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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 5-20 min | 60-180 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 3-20 | 4-20 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationEffortRisk | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |