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Criterion
Paper illustration for NoEstimates.
Agile
NoEstimates
Paper illustration for Change Analysis.
Operations
Change Analysis
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Purposedifferent
When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
laufend45-120 min30-90 min Setup, danach laufend1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
2-122-61-84-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing RulesChange Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action ListForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationCurrent-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list
Tagsno overlap
EstimationForecastingFlow
ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison
ForecastingFlowDelivery
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
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