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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-3 h | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 4-10 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow |