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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |