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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Waste Analysis |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-120 min | laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-12 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Waste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement Backlog | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | WasteLeanProcess improvement | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationExpertsForecasting |