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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Operations Theory of Constraints |  Operations Gemba Walk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | For a system that does not get faster despite effort, the method directs attention to the bottleneck. It concentrates improvement on the point that actually limits throughput. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 2-4 h Analyse, laufend | 30-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 3-12 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Constraint Map, Improvement Plan, Flow Metrics | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | OperationsConstraintsFlowImprovement | LeanObservationProcessOperations |