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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |