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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |