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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 20–45 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions |