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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 2-4 h | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |