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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen | 90-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision |