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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 45-60 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |