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Criterion
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Story Points.
Agile
Story Points
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Purposedifferent
Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When teams want to rate complexity rather than hours, it creates a shared, relative scale. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Point Estimates, Reference Stories, and Velocity Data.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
30-90 min Setup, danach laufend10-30 min je Itemlaufend, 1-5 min je Item15-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-81-83-92-9
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesPoint Estimates, Reference Stories, Velocity DataIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingFlowDelivery
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
EstimationAgileMeasurement
EstimationEffortAgile
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