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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile Story Points |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When teams want to rate complexity rather than hours, it creates a shared, relative scale. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Point Estimates, Reference Stories, and Velocity Data. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item | laufend, 1-5 min je Item | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-9 | 4-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Point Estimates, Reference Stories, Velocity Data | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationAgileMeasurement | AgileDiscoveryDelivery |