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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item | Half day | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ChangeDecisionStrategy |