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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Growth Funnel Analysis |  Growth Flywheel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When many visitors or users drop off along the way, the reason behind the number often stays hidden. Funnel Analysis exposes these transitions and makes visible exactly where the path collapses. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-5 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Funnel report, Drop-off analysis, Optimization hypotheses | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AnalyticsConversionGrowth | GrowthRetentionConversion |