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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 30-60 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |