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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow |