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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Systems Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making OODA Loop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen | 15-60 min je Zyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy |