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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Systems Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy |