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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile Story Splitting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile Bucket System |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When a story becomes too large for a clean flow, it breaks scope down along value and risk. It shapes the work into a form that ships earlier and is easier to verify. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-60 min | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Smaller Stories, Acceptance Criteria, Split Rationale | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | BacklogIterationDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |