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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-5 Tage | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments |
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