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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-90 min | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |