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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Risk Matrix |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-60 min | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Risk Matrix, Top Risk List | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |