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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Communication Plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When many people need to be informed in parallel and messages would otherwise arrive unevenly or too late, a Communication Plan orders communication reliably. Channels, audiences, and cadences interlock so important information doesn't get lost. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Communication Plan, Channel Matrix, Message Cadence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | CommunicationStakeholdersDeliveryPlanning |