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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Delivery Communication Plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When many people need to be informed in parallel and messages would otherwise arrive unevenly or too late, a Communication Plan orders communication reliably. Channels, audiences, and cadences interlock so important information doesn't get lost. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 20–45 min | 45-60 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Communication Plan, Channel Matrix, Message Cadence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | CommunicationStakeholdersDeliveryPlanning |