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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile Planning Poker |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Agile Bucket System |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-5 min je Item | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-9 | 4-10 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |