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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Engineering Kanban |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When work sits in too many parallel streams, throughput suffers and no one sees the bottlenecks. Kanban makes the flow of work visible and limits overload so a system becomes calmer and more predictable. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-45 min | Ongoing | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-12 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Kanban board, WIP policies, Flow metrics | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | FlowVisual managementDelivery | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |