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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Systems Mapping |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | laufend | 1-3 h | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-12 | 4-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability |