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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile NoEstimates |  Agile Story Points |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When teams want to rate complexity rather than hours, it creates a shared, relative scale. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Point Estimates, Reference Stories, and Velocity Data. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | laufend | laufend, 1-5 min je Item | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-9 | 2-9 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Point Estimates, Reference Stories, Velocity Data | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationAgileMeasurement | EstimationEffortAgile |