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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile NoEstimates |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | laufend | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 2-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow | LeanStartupValidationMVP | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |