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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | laufend | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 2-12 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | EstimationForecastingFlow | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |