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Criterion
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration of Family Tree Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Family Tree Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighMediumHigh
Timedifferent
30-90 min Setup, danach laufendMehrere Tage bis Wochen2-4 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-62-63-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsFamily Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic MeasuresFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingFlowDelivery
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic
RiskRoot causeSafety
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