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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making OODA Loop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Half day | 45-90 min | 15-60 min je Zyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy |