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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 45-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanStartupValidationMVP | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |