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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 2-4 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-6 | 3-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |