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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Growth Hooked Model |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Growth Flywheel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Multiple workshops over several weeks | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Hooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics check | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | GrowthBehaviorRetention | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | GrowthRetentionConversion |