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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |