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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ChangeDecisionStrategy |