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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-90 min | 45-60 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ChangeDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |