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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |  Operations 5 Whys |  Operations MORT Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-4 h | 15-30 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures | Root cause notes, Countermeasures | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident |