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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 4-10 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow |