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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 60-120 min | Half day | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |