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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 60-120 min | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | LeanStartupValidationMVP | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |