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Criterion
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Purposedifferent
Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
30-90 min Setup, danach laufend60-120 min1-4 Wochen1-2 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-86-30 Experten2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingFlowDelivery
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
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