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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Domain Modeling Context Map |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When several contexts need to talk to each other, it makes their relationships and dependencies legible. It helps sort integration pressure and responsibilities across system boundaries. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Context Map, Integration Patterns, Boundary Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Domain-Driven DesignBoundariesStrategy | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |