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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Delivery Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 45-90 min | 90-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision |